Alaska halibut fishing-commercial vs. sport

Setting harvest quotas for halibut

Forecasting fishing for the upcoming season has some similarities to forecasting weather. When forecasting weather they look at cloud patterns over a period of time and compare their movement and density (and other factors) and compare them with historical data. From this information they surmise that similar patterns and movements produced a certain kind of storm in certain areas.

Forecasting fish runs also using sampling techniques. Whereas the weathermen use satellite pictures those who forecast fishing use data collected in specific fishing sites over a period of time and then relate this information to historical data to make a forecast.

We have all become accustomed to “checking the forecast” before making final plans for our outdoor activities. Much of the time the relationship between forecast and reality seems only coincidental. Yet we always follow the routine of checking the weather because the weather forecast is the best information we have. Fishing forecasts are generally less reliable than weather forecasts because the data is harder to collect and fish stocks can’t be watched.

The following dialogue narrative contains the Fishing Forecast for our area for 2010. The numbers are those given to commercial fish processors to help in planning their sales and marketing efforts. The information comes from a report issued by the Pacific Seafood Fresh Market Report. Ultimately the data is provided by the fisheries management agencies.

All data are not the same. To keep this report short I will only cover Halibut in this paper, then deal with the salmon forecasts in a later edition.
Halibut regulatory areas are divided into a series of locations. All of Southeast Alaska is in Area 2C. Kenai, Cook Inlet, and Kodiak are in Area 3A. Commercial halibut harvest is regulated by quotas. The regulatory agency is Federal since the fishery covers multiples states (Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Canada. Those who commercially fish for halibut must have a license which allows them to harvest specific poundage. The poundage is specific to a given permit and reflects the historical annual catch for that license holder.

Quotas are adjusted annually based on the forecast for the coming season. Thus, the quota for harvest by the commercial fishery for 2010 reflects the forecast. The commercial catch quota for Area 2C in 2010 is 4,400,000 pounds. In 2009 the quota for this same area was 5,020,000. The quota for the commercial fishery has been reduced by 620,000 pounds for the coming year. This reduction should help us to have a great halibut year since the fishing pressure in our area will be reduced.
In the next paper we will discuss the ‘war’ on allocation of halibut between Sport and Commercial fishermen